Episode 76

Your Attribution Model Is Probably Wrong - Why Marketing Mix Modeling Works

· 36:29 · Host: Todd Juneau & Kelly McGuire

Todd and Kelly address why your attribution model is probably wrong and why media mix modeling works. They explore how you can correlate whether media investment is genuinely driving business outcomes.

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Chapters

  1. 00:00:00 — Why brand value extends beyond product functionality
  2. 00:04:00 — From simple attribution to complex customer journeys
  3. 00:08:00 — Correlation, causation, and confidence levels
  4. 00:13:00 — Why independent measurement matters beyond platform reporting
  5. 00:16:00 — When businesses should invest in media mix modeling
  6. 00:20:00 — Why many midmarket brands still lack sophisticated measurement
  7. 00:24:00 — How teams make media decisions without a unified model
  8. 00:27:00 — Brand, needs, wants, and the role of consumer perception
  9. 00:32:00 — Building sustainable growth through full funnel strategy
  10. 00:36:00 — Connecting communication strategy to the customer experience

Show notes

Todd and Kelly address why your attribution model is probably wrong and why media mix modeling works. They explore how you can correlate whether media investment is genuinely driving business outcomes.

They address the difference between correlation and causation, explain why platform reporting alone can create a distorted picture of performance, and explore how media mix modeling can help leaders make better decisions with imperfect data.

The discussion also speaks to when a business is ready to invest in more sophisticated measurement, the operational gaps that make modeling difficult, and why full-funnel thinking remains essential for brands that want durable growth instead of short-term luck.

For marketing leaders, brand managers, and agency professionals, this episode offers a practical perspective on connecting strategy, creative, customer journeys, and media spend to the outcomes that matter.

Chapters:

  • (00:00:00) Why brand value extends beyond product functionality
  • (00:04:00) From simple attribution to complex customer journeys
  • (00:08:00) Correlation, causation, and confidence levels
  • (00:13:00) Why independent measurement matters beyond platform reporting
  • (00:16:00) When businesses should invest in media mix modeling
  • (00:20:00) Why many midmarket brands still lack sophisticated measurement
  • (00:24:00) How teams make media decisions without a unified model
  • (00:27:00) Brand, needs, wants, and the role of consumer perception
  • (00:32:00) Building sustainable growth through full funnel strategy
  • (00:36:00) Connecting communication strategy to the customer experience

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About Contrary to Popular Opinion

Contrary to Popular Opinion is the show where marketing's conventional wisdom gets cross-examined. Hosts Todd Juneau and Kelly McGuire take the advice every marketer repeats — and test whether it actually builds brands or just follows the crowd — drawing on decades inside the advertising business to give leaders permission to do the thing nobody else is doing.

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